In this election more than one-in-three voters are expected to cast an early vote. It’s a historic first and an important indicator of how national and local races might unfold. We check in on the early voting in one key Fronteras Desk coverage state, arguably the only one that's in play for the national election: Nevada.
Four counties have reported early results. The big ones Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) make up 86 percent of the vote. Obama won Nevada in 2008 and if the Republicans want to take the state they need to make a dent in Clark County, historically Democratic. And according to some very early results, they are:
(Note: The numbers below are not the actual votes, but a prediction based on party affiliation)
Via, Battleground Watch:
Day 1: 2012 Clark County: 33,204 votes
• Democrat 55.4 percent — 18,388 votes
• Republican 28.9 percent — 9,588 votes
• None/Other 15.7 percent — 5,228 votes
First glance day one looks good for Democrats. One Nevada Politico went as far as stating: “Democrats massacre Republicans on first day of early voting in urban areas.”
But Battleground points out, the numbers are misleading. In comparison to 2008, Republicans are doing quite well:
“It is true that Democrats enjoyed a whopping 55 to 29% lead among ballots returned or voted on Day 1 — a 26 percentage point (pp) margin. But in 2008 the Democrats enjoyed a 62 to 23 advantage — a 39pp margin. So the GOP is outperforming by 13 points.”
It's all speculation at this point. But for those interested, Battlegrounds created a pretty compelling model to measure Nevada early votes in comparison to 2008. Oh, and if this model proves to be true, Romney will win Nevada.
EDITOR'S NOTE: This story has been modified to correct the names of the Nevada counties.